Thursday, October 18, 2018

Oct 18 update

From 10/17 and 10/18 we had the following movement:


Poll Based
Polls in FL, IN, NJ, NY and CA with FL : Scott +1.4%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

minor changes - odds remain: 0.6%D

no ratings changes: odds remain in single digits


Cook odds 76.4%D up from 72.3%D
OH-12   Lean R    »»» Toss Up
NY-11    Likely R  »»» Lean R

RCP: odds 83.9%D up from 80.6%D
FL-15   Safe R    »»» Toss Up
AK-01   Safe R    »»» Toss Up

Sabato: odds 81.2%D  down from 81.6%D

Member/DistrictOld RatingNew Rating
AZ-2 Open (McSally, R)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Mimi Walters (R, CA-45)Toss-upLeans Democratic
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)Toss-upLeans Democratic
MN-8 Open (Nolan, D)Toss-upLeans Republican
NH-1 Open (Shea-Porter, D)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)Toss-upLeans Republican
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Rothfus (R) vs. Lamb (D) (PA-17)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
SC-1 Open (Sanford, R)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Will Hurd (R, TX-23)Toss-upLeans Republican
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)Toss-upLeans Republican