Saturday, November 3, 2018

Nov 2nd update

Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!


CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9

WV Manchin +5

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D

OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D


Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R

Analyst-based House ratings changes

Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D

CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R
CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D
IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R
NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D

AK-01 Lean R »»» Toss Up
AR-02 Lean R »»» Likely R
FL-18 Likely R »»» Lean R
GA-06 Lean R »»» Toss Up
GA-07 Likely R »»» Lean R
IA-04 Likely R »»» Lean R
IN-02 Safe R »»» Likely R
KY-06 Toss Up »»» Lean R
NH-01 Lean D »»» Toss Up
NJ-07 Toss Up »»» Lean D
NY-02 Safe R »»» Likely R
OR-05 Likely D »»» Lean D
PA-10 Lean R »»» Toss Up

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP