Friday, November 11, 2022

Friday Night Update

The GOP's hopes continued to fade today, as news outlets began calling the Arizona Senate race for the Democrats, giving them 49 seats with Nevada trending in their direction as well.

In the House, the battle for 218 is still technically ongoing - but with all signs still pointing to a Republican House.  Splitting the difference between LPR's Wednesday and Thursday estimates, the current estimate is for a 7 seat majority.

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Thursday Night Update

Republican's continued to build towards a working House majority today, as they have solidified 211 seats to the Democrats 200. estimates that of the remaining 24 undecided seats, the Republicans will pick up an additional 11 seats.

The three remaining active Senate contracts have not pointed to as favorable an outcome for the GOP, with Dave Wasserman tweeting he's seen enough in AZ.  If the Democrats do win the Arizona Senate seat, they will only need to win one of the remaining two seats, and the Republicans will need to win in Nevada and win the Georgia runoff to avoid a 50-50 Senate where the tiebreaking vote is against them.

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Wednesday Night Update

LPR has projected a Republican Senate and House.  While we wait for the 3 remaining Senate contests (two of which must be won by Republicans for LPR's perfect projection record to remain intact), we are closely watching the House races.  Here is the latest information available, indicating the most likely outcome now is 220 to 215.

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

"Final" Probabilities


LPR Officially Projects Republican House & Senate

With an unbiased analysis of the latest publicly available poll in each state, LPR officially projects a Republican Senate.  The most likely scenario is that Republicans will win 53 seats.

As poll coverage across House districts is not complete, LPR is making our House projection using our unique analyst-based analysis.  Learn more about the math behind this methodology here.

Saturday, November 5, 2022

Polling Confirms GOP's High Chances

The Republican momentum hasn't slowed, as just three days out from election day, polls are pointing to a very high probability of a GOP Senate.  While many news outlets discuss "tightening polls" or a "toss up Senate", LPR reports that - using those same polls - the math now clearly indicates a GOP-controlled Senate.  Stay tuned for more late-breaking polls and market-based real-time analysis.

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Fall Polling Data Cools Democratic Chances

 As October wanes, we are gearing up for an exciting election!  Throughout the summer, the Democrats had held onto an advantage in polling, but in the last week that advantage has evaporated in dramatic fashion.

Our polling model is now pointing to likely GOP victory.