Thursday, November 5, 2020

Red State Blue State Game (The Wizard of Odds) on Home Page

I've disabled the live home page.

What a wild ride!  The home page was only intended to last a few hours to capture the excitement of election day - and not Election Week! and are now redirecting to The Wizard of Odds using the same live data from PredictIt. 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Final Projections


Trafalgar Polls in Nevada, Georgia, push Trump from 21.7% to 24.7% in Official Analysis

 The very latest polls from the Trafalgar Group, improve Trump's Odds to 24.7%.  In our initial projection, these two polls were not included.  Trump gains 3 percentage points in our model based on this new data.

Final Senate Projection - Democrats Very Likely To Take Senate officially projects that the Democrats will take the Senate!

NOTE: This was originally reported as a 90.8% chance for Democratic Control of the Senate.  However, this probability has been corrected to 90.1% and 9.9% for Republican Control after accounting for a 3% increase in Trump's chances due to late-breaking Trafalgar polls.

Alignment of Poll-Based and Market-Based Probabilities

Just hours before the polls close, we've seen a remarkable alignment of the poll-based and market-based analyses with both projecting around a 22% chance for Trump and a 77% chance for Biden.  Note that currently, on PredictIt, the main election contract for Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? is showing 66 cent / 43 cent buy prices for Joe Biden and Donald Trump respectively:

It's important to understand that LPR's market-based projection is indifferent to this contract.  Rather, LatestPollResults uses each state's (and district's) contract.  The discrepancy between a 22% market-based probability on LatestPollResults and the overall contract at PredictIt indicates that traders are underestimating Biden's chances of winning the electoral college OR overestimating his chances to win certain states.

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Final Projection

 The final poll-based Electoral College analysis is complete.  Biden is most likely to win with a 77.2% chance of victory.  It's 2020 so we should note the worst case scenario - a 1.1% chance of a tie: