Tuesday, October 6, 2020

2020 Kickoff Post

Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!

Today, we're adding a live probability distribution to The Wizard of Odds!  You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on PredictIt, or by manually adjusting the sliders.  This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!

We look forward to an exciting and unpredictable election season.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Nov 6 - Projection

The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!

Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:

There is a 99.6% probability the 

Sunday, November 4, 2018

Nov 3rd update

Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:



FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3

Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.

Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

No changes


Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R

Analyst-based House ratings changes

SC-01Likely R»»»Lean R
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Nov 2nd update

Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!


CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9

WV Manchin +5

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D

OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D


Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R

Analyst-based House ratings changes

Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D

CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R
CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D
IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R
NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D

AK-01 Lean R »»» Toss Up
AR-02 Lean R »»» Likely R
FL-18 Likely R »»» Lean R
GA-06 Lean R »»» Toss Up
GA-07 Likely R »»» Lean R
IA-04 Likely R »»» Lean R
IN-02 Safe R »»» Likely R
KY-06 Toss Up »»» Lean R
NH-01 Lean D »»» Toss Up
NJ-07 Toss Up »»» Lean D
NY-02 Safe R »»» Likely R
OR-05 Likely D »»» Lean D
PA-10 Lean R »»» Toss Up

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Oct 31st update and summary

In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...


AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22

ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5

NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11

Most significant changes: 
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook 
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP


House ratings changes:

AR-02: Lean R to Likely R 
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R 
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R 
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R 
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R 
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R 

Inside Elections
FL-26: Lean R to Toss Up 
NC-09: Lean R to Toss Up 
NJ-07: Lean R to Toss Up 
UT-04: Lean R to Toss Up 
KS-03: Toss Up to Lean D 
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D 
Toss Up to Lean D 
FL-15: Lean R to Tilt R 
IL-14: Lean R to Tilt R 
OH-01: Lean R to Tilt R 
CA-50: Likely R to Lean R 
FL-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-07: Likely R to Lean R 
MN-08: Toss Up to Lean R 
NC-02: Tilt R to Lean R 
NY-11: Likely R to Lean R 
NY-24: Likely R to Lean R 
WA-05: Lean R to Likely R 

Real Clear Politics
PA-17: Lean D to Likely D 
NC-13: Toss Up to Lean R 
CA-21: Lean R to Likely R 
SC-01: Safe R to Likely R 
IA-04: Safe R to Likely R 
NV-04: Lean D to Toss Up 
Lean R to Toss Up 

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Oct 27th update & summary

Friday/Saturday updates ...


MI Stabenow +6
MO Hawley +4
TX Cruz +6

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
minor changes 

Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.6%D

Analyst Senate ratings changes:
10/23 Cook:
NJ-Menéndez Lean D »»» Toss Up

10/26 Inside Elections:
OH-Brown   Lean D »»» Safe D
PA-Casey   Lean D »»» Safe D
WI-Baldwin Lean D »»» Safe D


House ratings changes:
10/23 - Cook 10 changes: 8 in D direction
10/25 - Sabato 16 changes: 12 in D direction 
10/26 - Inside Elections 18 changes: 15 in D direction

The probability that the Democrats win the House based on each analyst's current ratings and the historical accuracy of the analyst's ratings.
80.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato 
77.5%D RCP

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Oct 25th update


MI Stabenow +7
Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest change: 
WV Manchin 75%D down from 81%D 

Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.5%D down from 0.6%D

Analyst ratings

MI Stabenow  Likely D »»» Lean D

Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: 0.0%D



Sabato - 16 ratings changes outlined in last night's blog

Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D