2020 Kickoff Post

Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!

Today, we're adding a live probability distribution to The Wizard of Odds!  You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on PredictIt, or by manually adjusting the sliders.  This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!

We look forward to an exciting and unpredictable election season.

Nov 6 - Projection

The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!

Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:

There is a 99.6% probability the 

REPUBLICANS RETAIN THE SENATE

Nov 3rd update

Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:

SENATE

Polls

FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3

Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.

Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

No changes

HOUSE

Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R


Analyst-based House ratings changes

RCP

SC-01	Likely R	»»»	Lean R

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:

77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP

Nov 2nd update

Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!

SENATE

Polls
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9

WV Manchin +5

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D

RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D

HOUSE

Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R


Analyst-based House ratings changes

Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D

Sabato

CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R

CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D

IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R

NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D

RCP

AK-01	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up
AR-02	Lean R	»»»	Likely R
FL-18	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
GA-06	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up
GA-07	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
IA-04	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
IN-02	Safe R	»»»	Likely R
KY-06	Toss Up	»»»	Lean R
NH-01	Lean D	»»»	Toss Up
NJ-07	Toss Up	»»»	Lean D
NY-02	Safe R	»»»	Likely R
OR-05	Likely D	»»»	Lean D
PA-10	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP

Oct 31st update and summary

In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...

SENATE

Polls
AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22

ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5

NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11

Most significant changes: 
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D


PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D


Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook 
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP

HOUSE

House ratings changes:

Cook

AR-02: Lean R to Likely R →
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R ←
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R ←
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R ←
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R ←
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R →

Inside Elections

FL-26: Lean R to Toss Up ←

NC-09: Lean R to Toss Up ←

NJ-07: Lean R to Toss Up ←

UT-04: Lean R to Toss Up ←

KS-03: Toss Up to Lean D ←

NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D ←
NJ-11: Toss Up to Lean D ←

FL-15: Lean R to Tilt R ←

IL-14: Lean R to Tilt R ←

OH-01: Lean R to Tilt R ←

CA-50: Likely R to Lean R ←

FL-06: Likely R to Lean R ←

GA-06: Likely R to Lean R ←

GA-07: Likely R to Lean R ←

MN-08: Toss Up to Lean R →

NC-02: Tilt R to Lean R →

NY-11: Likely R to Lean R ←

NY-24: Likely R to Lean R ←

WA-05: Lean R to Likely R →

Real Clear Politics

PA-17: Lean D to Likely D ←

NC-13: Toss Up to Lean R →

CA-21: Lean R to Likely R →

SC-01: Safe R to Likely R ←

IA-04: Safe R to Likely R ←

NV-04: Lean D to Toss Up ←
MT-01: Lean R to Toss Up ←

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP

Oct 27th update & summary

Friday/Saturday updates ...

SENATE

Polls
MI Stabenow +6
MO Hawley +4
TX Cruz +6

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D


PredictIt markets
minor changes 

Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.6%D


Analyst Senate ratings changes:
10/23 Cook:
NJ-Menéndez Lean D »»» Toss Up

10/26 Inside Elections:
OH-Brown   Lean D »»» Safe D
PA-Casey   Lean D »»» Safe D
WI-Baldwin Lean D »»» Safe D

HOUSE

House ratings changes:

10/23 - Cook 10 changes: 8 in D direction

10/25 - Sabato 16 changes: 12 in D direction 

10/26 - Inside Elections 18 changes: 15 in D direction

The probability that the Democrats win the House based on each analyst's current ratings and the historical accuracy of the analyst's ratings.

80.8%D Cook 

65.0%D Inside Elections

82.8%D Sabato 

77.5%D RCP

Oct 25th update

SENATE

Polls
MI Stabenow +7
Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest change: 
WV Manchin 75%D down from 81%D 

Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.5%D down from 0.6%D

Analyst ratings

RCP
MI Stabenow  Likely D »»» Lean D

Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: 0.0%D

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HOUSE

Sabato - 16 ratings changes outlined in last night's blog

Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D