Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Oct 31st update and summary

In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...


AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22

ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5

NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11

Most significant changes: 
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook 
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP


House ratings changes:

AR-02: Lean R to Likely R 
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R 
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R 
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R 
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R 
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R 

Inside Elections
FL-26: Lean R to Toss Up 
NC-09: Lean R to Toss Up 
NJ-07: Lean R to Toss Up 
UT-04: Lean R to Toss Up 
KS-03: Toss Up to Lean D 
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D 
Toss Up to Lean D 
FL-15: Lean R to Tilt R 
IL-14: Lean R to Tilt R 
OH-01: Lean R to Tilt R 
CA-50: Likely R to Lean R 
FL-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-07: Likely R to Lean R 
MN-08: Toss Up to Lean R 
NC-02: Tilt R to Lean R 
NY-11: Likely R to Lean R 
NY-24: Likely R to Lean R 
WA-05: Lean R to Likely R 

Real Clear Politics
PA-17: Lean D to Likely D 
NC-13: Toss Up to Lean R 
CA-21: Lean R to Likely R 
SC-01: Safe R to Likely R 
IA-04: Safe R to Likely R 
NV-04: Lean D to Toss Up 
Lean R to Toss Up 

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP