Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Oct 31st update and summary

In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...


AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22

ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5

NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11

Most significant changes: 
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook 
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP


House ratings changes:

AR-02: Lean R to Likely R 
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R 
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R 
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R 
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R 
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R 

Inside Elections
FL-26: Lean R to Toss Up 
NC-09: Lean R to Toss Up 
NJ-07: Lean R to Toss Up 
UT-04: Lean R to Toss Up 
KS-03: Toss Up to Lean D 
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D 
Toss Up to Lean D 
FL-15: Lean R to Tilt R 
IL-14: Lean R to Tilt R 
OH-01: Lean R to Tilt R 
CA-50: Likely R to Lean R 
FL-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-06: Likely R to Lean R 
GA-07: Likely R to Lean R 
MN-08: Toss Up to Lean R 
NC-02: Tilt R to Lean R 
NY-11: Likely R to Lean R 
NY-24: Likely R to Lean R 
WA-05: Lean R to Likely R 

Real Clear Politics
PA-17: Lean D to Likely D 
NC-13: Toss Up to Lean R 
CA-21: Lean R to Likely R 
SC-01: Safe R to Likely R 
IA-04: Safe R to Likely R 
NV-04: Lean D to Toss Up 
Lean R to Toss Up 

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP

Saturday, October 27, 2018

Oct 27th update & summary

Friday/Saturday updates ...


MI Stabenow +6
MO Hawley +4
TX Cruz +6

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
minor changes 

Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.6%D

Analyst Senate ratings changes:
10/23 Cook:
NJ-Menéndez Lean D »»» Toss Up

10/26 Inside Elections:
OH-Brown   Lean D »»» Safe D
PA-Casey   Lean D »»» Safe D
WI-Baldwin Lean D »»» Safe D


House ratings changes:
10/23 - Cook 10 changes: 8 in D direction
10/25 - Sabato 16 changes: 12 in D direction 
10/26 - Inside Elections 18 changes: 15 in D direction

The probability that the Democrats win the House based on each analyst's current ratings and the historical accuracy of the analyst's ratings.
80.8%D Cook 
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato 
77.5%D RCP

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Oct 25th update


MI Stabenow +7
Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest change: 
WV Manchin 75%D down from 81%D 

Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.5%D down from 0.6%D

Analyst ratings

MI Stabenow  Likely D »»» Lean D

Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: 0.0%D



Sabato - 16 ratings changes outlined in last night's blog

Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Oct 24 update - evening

16 House ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball:

House ratings changes

Oct. 25, 2018
Member/DistrictOld RatingNew Rating
Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Jim Costa (D, CA-16)Safe DemocraticLikely Democratic
Scott Tipton (R, CO-3)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)Leans RepublicanLikely Republican
Brian Mast (R, FL-18)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Karen Handel (R, GA-6)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Mike Bost (R, IL-12)Toss-upLeans Republican
Justin Amash (R, MI-3)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Bill Huizenga (R, MI-2)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Fred Upton (R, MI-6)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
John Katko (R, NY-24)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Peter King (R, NY-2)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21)Safe RepublicanLikely Republican
Scott Taylor (R, VA-2)Toss-upLeans Republican
VA-5 Open (Garrett, R)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D

Oct 24 update


FL Nelson +4
NJ Menendez +5

Projected Senate seats: 53.6R - 46.4D
Poll-based odds for Democratic Senate: remain 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest changes: 
MS Hyde-Smith 92%R up from 88%R 
NJ Menendez   78%D down from 82%D

Projected Senate seats: 53.7R - 46.3D
Market-based odds for Democratic Senate: 0.6%D down from 0.8%D

Analyst ratings
No changes


MN-01 Lean R »»» Toss Up
Odds based on RCP ratings: 77.5%D up from 74.2%D

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Oct 23 update

From late 10/22 and 10/23 we have the following:


10/22 - IN  Donnelly +1
10/22 - ND  Cramer +16

10/22 - WV  Manchin +16

10/23 - IN  Braun +4
10/23 - MS  Wicker +28
10/23 - MS2 Hyde-Smith +9

Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest changes: 
IN 46%D down from 56%D 
ND 15%D down from 21%D
Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.8%D down from 1.3%D
Analyst ratings
ND Heitkamp  Lean R »»» Likely R
WV Manchin   Lean D »»» Likely D
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 0.0%D

AK-01  Likely R »»» Lean R 
AZ-08  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
FL-06  Likely R »»» Lean R
FL-15  Lean R   »»» Toss Up 
FL-27  Toss Up  »»» Lean D 
IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
NY-23  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
TX-22  Likely R »»» Lean R 
TX-31  Lean R   »»» Likely 
Odds based on Cook ratings remain: 80.8%D up from 76.4%D

IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 74.2%D up from 77.5%D

Monday, October 22, 2018

Oct 22 update

From 10/21 and 10/22 we have the following movement:

10/21 FL Nelson +5MO Hawley +1
10/22 FL Scott +0.3, MN Klobuchar +23, MNsp Smith +6, CA Feinstein +18, VT Sanders +41
Odds Democratic control: 0.0%

PredictIt Markets
General buying in Democrat contracts:  
Biggest changes: FL 55%D up from 47%D, NV 51%D up from 43%D
Odds Democratic control: 1.3% up from 0.6%

No changes


10/21 IL-14    Toss Up  »»» Lean R
10/21 FL-06   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
10/21 TX-22   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 77.5%D down from 80.4%D

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Oct 20 update

AZ  McSally +2
Poll-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.0%

PredictIt Markets 
largest daily change - decrease in odds for MI- Stabenow (D) to 81% from 85%
largest weekly changes:
increase in odds for IN- Donnelly (D) : 59% from 51%
increase in odds for TN- Bredesen (D) : 23% from 18%
Market-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.6%

Analyst ratings
No changes in Senate or House

Friday, October 19, 2018

Oct 19 update


Poll Based
ME poll: Angus +27.6%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

minor changes
Odds remain: 0.6%D

ND-Heitkamp   Toss Up »»» Lean R
Odds based on Cook's ratings: 2.9%D down from 7.6%D


MI-11    Lean D   »»» Toss Up
OH-10   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
CO-03   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 80.4%D down from 83.9%D

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Oct 18 update

From 10/17 and 10/18 we had the following movement:


Poll Based
Polls in FL, IN, NJ, NY and CA with FL : Scott +1.4%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

minor changes - odds remain: 0.6%D

no ratings changes: odds remain in single digits


Cook odds 76.4%D up from 72.3%D
OH-12   Lean R    »»» Toss Up
NY-11    Likely R  »»» Lean R

RCP: odds 83.9%D up from 80.6%D
FL-15   Safe R    »»» Toss Up
AK-01   Safe R    »»» Toss Up

Sabato: odds 81.2%D  down from 81.6%D

Member/DistrictOld RatingNew Rating
AZ-2 Open (McSally, R)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Mimi Walters (R, CA-45)Toss-upLeans Democratic
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)Toss-upLeans Democratic
MN-8 Open (Nolan, D)Toss-upLeans Republican
NH-1 Open (Shea-Porter, D)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)Toss-upLeans Republican
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Rothfus (R) vs. Lamb (D) (PA-17)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
SC-1 Open (Sanford, R)Likely RepublicanLeans Republican
Will Hurd (R, TX-23)Toss-upLeans Republican
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)Toss-upLeans Republican