Sunday, November 4, 2018

Nov 3rd update

Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:



FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3

Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.

Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

No changes


Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R

Analyst-based House ratings changes

SC-01Likely R»»»Lean R
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP