The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!
Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:
There is a 99.6% probability the
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Nov 3rd update
Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:
Polls
FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.
Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
No changes
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:
SENATE
FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3
Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8
Projected seats: 52.8
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.
Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
No changes
HOUSE
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
RCP
SC-01 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Nov 2nd update
Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!
Polls
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9
WV Manchin +5
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D
RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D
Election in 4 days!
SENATE
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9
WV Manchin +5
Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6
Projected seats: 51.6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D
RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D
HOUSE
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D
Sabato
CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R
CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D
IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R
NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D
RCP
AK-01 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
AR-02 | Lean R | »»» | Likely R |
FL-18 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
GA-06 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
GA-07 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
IA-04 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
IN-02 | Safe R | »»» | Likely R |
KY-06 | Toss Up | »»» | Lean R |
NH-01 | Lean D | »»» | Toss Up |
NJ-07 | Toss Up | »»» | Lean D |
NY-02 | Safe R | »»» | Likely R |
OR-05 | Likely D | »»» | Lean D |
PA-10 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Oct 31st update and summary
In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...
Polls
AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22
ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5
NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.
Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D
PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP
SENATE
AZ Sinema +4
CA Feinstein +9
CT Murphy +20
FL Nelson +1.4
MA Warren +22
ME King +13
MI Stabenow +17
MT Tester +3
ND Cramer +9
NJ Menendez +5
NV Rosen +3
NM Heinrich +16
OH Brown +6
TN Blackburn +5
TX Cruz +10
WI Baldwin +11
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema, now favored.
NV Rosen, now favored.
Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 52.8Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D
PredictIt markets
Most significant changes:
AZ Sinema jumps from 37% probability to now favored at 52%.
NV Rosen jumps from 45% probability to now favored at 54%.
WV Manchin jumps from 75% chance of winning to 80%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst Senate ratings changes:
No changes
Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:
1.6%D Cook
0.0%D Inside Elections
2.5%D Sabato
0.0%D RCP
HOUSE
House ratings changes:
Cook
AR-02: Lean R to Likely R →
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R ←
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R ←
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R ←
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R ←
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R →
CA-01: Solid R to Likely R ←
CA-22: Solid R to Likely R ←
FL-18: Likely R to Lean R ←
IA-04: Likely R to Lean R ←
OH-01: Toss Up to Lean R →
Inside Elections
FL-26: Lean R to Toss Up ←
NC-09: Lean R to Toss Up ←
NJ-07: Lean R to Toss Up ←
UT-04: Lean R to Toss Up ←
KS-03: Toss Up to Lean D ←
NH-01: Toss Up to Lean D ←
NJ-11: Toss Up to Lean D ←
NJ-11: Toss Up to Lean D ←
FL-15: Lean R to Tilt R ←
IL-14: Lean R to Tilt R ←
OH-01: Lean R to Tilt R ←
CA-50: Likely R to Lean R ←
FL-06: Likely R to Lean R ←
GA-06: Likely R to Lean R ←
GA-07: Likely R to Lean R ←
MN-08: Toss Up to Lean R →
NC-02: Tilt R to Lean R →
NY-11: Likely R to Lean R ←
NY-24: Likely R to Lean R ←
WA-05: Lean R to Likely R →
Real Clear Politics
PA-17: Lean D to Likely D ←
NC-13: Toss Up to Lean R →
CA-21: Lean R to Likely R →
SC-01: Safe R to Likely R ←
IA-04: Safe R to Likely R ←
NV-04: Lean D to Toss Up ←
MT-01: Lean R to Toss Up ←
MT-01: Lean R to Toss Up ←
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP
77.8%D Cook
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
73.5%D RCP
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Oct 27th update & summary
Friday/Saturday updates ...
Polls
MI Stabenow +6
MO Hawley +4
TX Cruz +6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D
PredictIt markets
minor changes
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.6%D
Analyst Senate ratings changes:
10/23 Cook:
NJ-Menéndez Lean D »»» Toss Up
10/26 Inside Elections:
OH-Brown Lean D »»» Safe D
PA-Casey Lean D »»» Safe D
WI-Baldwin Lean D »»» Safe D
SENATE
MI Stabenow +6
MO Hawley +4
TX Cruz +6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 0.0%D
PredictIt markets
minor changes
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.6%D
Analyst Senate ratings changes:
10/23 Cook:
NJ-Menéndez Lean D »»» Toss Up
10/26 Inside Elections:
OH-Brown Lean D »»» Safe D
PA-Casey Lean D »»» Safe D
WI-Baldwin Lean D »»» Safe D
HOUSE
House ratings changes:
10/23 - Cook 10 changes: 8 in D direction
10/25 - Sabato 16 changes: 12 in D direction
10/26 - Inside Elections 18 changes: 15 in D direction
The probability that the Democrats win the House based on each analyst's current ratings and the historical accuracy of the analyst's ratings.
80.8%D Cook
65.0%D Inside Elections
82.8%D Sabato
77.5%D RCP
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Oct 25th update
SENATE
MI Stabenow +7
Odds remain: 0.0%D
PredictIt markets
largest change:
WV Manchin 75%D down from 81%D
Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.5%D down from 0.6%D
Analyst ratings
RCP
MI Stabenow Likely D »»» Lean D
Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: 0.0%D
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOUSE
Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Oct 24 update - evening
16 House ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball:
House ratings changes
Oct. 25, 2018
Member/District | Old Rating | New Rating |
---|---|---|
Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
Jim Costa (D, CA-16) | Safe Democratic | Likely Democratic |
Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) | Leans Republican | Likely Republican |
Brian Mast (R, FL-18) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
Karen Handel (R, GA-6) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
Mike Bost (R, IL-12) | Toss-up | Leans Republican |
Justin Amash (R, MI-3) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
Bill Huizenga (R, MI-2) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
Fred Upton (R, MI-6) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
John Katko (R, NY-24) | Likely Republican | Leans Republican |
Peter King (R, NY-2) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) | Safe Republican | Likely Republican |
Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) | Toss-up | Leans Republican |
VA-5 Open (Garrett, R) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D
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