"Final" Probabilities

 

LPR Officially Projects Republican House & Senate

With an unbiased analysis of the latest publicly available poll in each state, LPR officially projects a Republican Senate.  The most likely scenario is that Republicans will win 53 seats.

As poll coverage across House districts is not complete, LPR is making our House projection using our unique analyst-based analysis.  Learn more about the math behind this methodology here.

Polling Confirms GOP's High Chances

The Republican momentum hasn't slowed, as just three days out from election day, polls are pointing to a very high probability of a GOP Senate.  While many news outlets discuss "tightening polls" or a "toss up Senate", LPR reports that - using those same polls - the math now clearly indicates a GOP-controlled Senate.  Stay tuned for more late-breaking polls and market-based real-time analysis.

Fall Polling Data Cools Democratic Chances

 As October wanes, we are gearing up for an exciting election!  Throughout the summer, the Democrats had held onto an advantage in polling, but in the last week that advantage has evaporated in dramatic fashion.

Our polling model is now pointing to likely GOP victory.

Red State Blue State Game (The Wizard of Odds) on Home Page

I've disabled the live home page.

What a wild ride!  The home page was only intended to last a few hours to capture the excitement of election day - and not Election Week!

www.LiveElectionOdds.com and www.LatestPollResults.com are now redirecting to The Wizard of Odds using the same live data from PredictIt. 

Final Projections

 

Trafalgar Polls in Nevada, Georgia, push Trump from 21.7% to 24.7% in Official Analysis

 The very latest polls from the Trafalgar Group, improve Trump's Odds to 24.7%.  In our initial projection, these two polls were not included.  Trump gains 3 percentage points in our model based on this new data.