Dramatic Trump Surge in Latest Polling

Recently, LatestPollResults's poll-based methodology was showing a 0.1% chance of a Trump victory.  As many of the polling organizations release their final polls, Trump's chances of victory - perhaps predictably - are rising sharply.

For full disclosure, here is the latest poll per our criteria in each state that we are plugging into our model.  Although Biden is still heavily favored, as of this moment, if Trump wins each poll he is leading in, he will be reelected.

New Wizard of Odds Features

 We've launched a new settings menu for The Wizard of Odds.

You can now:

• Toggle the live data here instead of at the bottom of the screen for when you don't want to receive live market updates during periods of intense analysis.  This can be important because if you are testing specific scenarios and using the sliders, live data can affect your comparisons.
• Assume that any candidate over specific thresholds in a state will will that state.  This is important for focusing on battleground states, as many users use The Wizard of Odds by moving the near-certainties to 100%.
• Reset the map sliders without refreshing the page.  This will reset all manual data to the original position.

Senate Version of The Wizard of Odds

 For the first time, we have launched a Senate Version of The Wizard of Odds!

2020 Kickoff Post

Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!

Today, we're adding a live probability distribution to The Wizard of Odds!  You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on PredictIt, or by manually adjusting the sliders.  This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!

We look forward to an exciting and unpredictable election season.

Nov 6 - Projection

The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!

Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:

There is a 99.6% probability the 

REPUBLICANS RETAIN THE SENATE

Nov 3rd update

Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:

SENATE

Polls

FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3

Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.

Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

No changes

HOUSE

Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R


Analyst-based House ratings changes

RCP

SC-01	Likely R	»»»	Lean R

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:

77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP

Nov 2nd update

Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!

SENATE

Polls
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9

WV Manchin +5

Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6

Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D

Market-based (PredictIt)

Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.

Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D

Analyst-based Senate ratings changes

Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D

RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D

HOUSE

Market-based (PredictIt)

Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R


Analyst-based House ratings changes

Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D

Sabato

CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R

CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D

IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R

NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D

RCP

AK-01	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up
AR-02	Lean R	»»»	Likely R
FL-18	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
GA-06	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up
GA-07	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
IA-04	Likely R	»»»	Lean R
IN-02	Safe R	»»»	Likely R
KY-06	Toss Up	»»»	Lean R
NH-01	Lean D	»»»	Toss Up
NJ-07	Toss Up	»»»	Lean D
NY-02	Safe R	»»»	Likely R
OR-05	Likely D	»»»	Lean D
PA-10	Lean R	»»»	Toss Up

Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook 
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP