Alignment of Poll-Based and Market-Based Probabilities

Just hours before the polls close, we've seen a remarkable alignment of the poll-based and market-based analyses with both projecting around a 22% chance for Trump and a 77% chance for Biden.  Note that currently, on PredictIt, the main election contract for Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? is showing 66 cent / 43 cent buy prices for Joe Biden and Donald Trump respectively:

It's important to understand that LPR's market-based projection is indifferent to this contract.  Rather, LatestPollResults uses each state's (and district's) contract.  The discrepancy between a 22% market-based probability on LatestPollResults and the overall contract at PredictIt indicates that traders are underestimating Biden's chances of winning the electoral college OR overestimating his chances to win certain states.

Election Day Dashboard

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Final Projection

 The final poll-based Electoral College analysis is complete.  Biden is most likely to win with a 77.2% chance of victory.  It's 2020 so we should note the worst case scenario - a 1.1% chance of a tie:

Dramatic Trump Surge in Latest Polling

Recently, LatestPollResults's poll-based methodology was showing a 0.1% chance of a Trump victory.  As many of the polling organizations release their final polls, Trump's chances of victory - perhaps predictably - are rising sharply.

For full disclosure, here is the latest poll per our criteria in each state that we are plugging into our model.  Although Biden is still heavily favored, as of this moment, if Trump wins each poll he is leading in, he will be reelected.

New Wizard of Odds Features

 We've launched a new settings menu for The Wizard of Odds.

You can now:

• Toggle the live data here instead of at the bottom of the screen for when you don't want to receive live market updates during periods of intense analysis.  This can be important because if you are testing specific scenarios and using the sliders, live data can affect your comparisons.
• Assume that any candidate over specific thresholds in a state will will that state.  This is important for focusing on battleground states, as many users use The Wizard of Odds by moving the near-certainties to 100%.
• Reset the map sliders without refreshing the page.  This will reset all manual data to the original position.

Senate Version of The Wizard of Odds

 For the first time, we have launched a Senate Version of The Wizard of Odds!

2020 Kickoff Post

Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!

Today, we're adding a live probability distribution to The Wizard of Odds!  You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on PredictIt, or by manually adjusting the sliders.  This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!

We look forward to an exciting and unpredictable election season.