Oct 25th update

SENATE

Polls
MI Stabenow +7
Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest change: 
WV Manchin 75%D down from 81%D 

Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.5%D down from 0.6%D

Analyst ratings

RCP
MI Stabenow  Likely D »»» Lean D

Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: 0.0%D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSE

Sabato - 16 ratings changes outlined in last night's blog

Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D

Oct 24 update - evening

16 House ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball:

House ratings changes

Oct. 25, 2018

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Jim Costa (D, CA-16)	Safe Democratic	Likely Democratic
Scott Tipton (R, CO-3)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)	Leans Republican	Likely Republican
Brian Mast (R, FL-18)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Karen Handel (R, GA-6)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Mike Bost (R, IL-12)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Justin Amash (R, MI-3)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Bill Huizenga (R, MI-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Fred Upton (R, MI-6)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
John Katko (R, NY-24)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Peter King (R, NY-2)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21)	Safe Republican	Likely Republican
Scott Taylor (R, VA-2)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
VA-5 Open (Garrett, R)	Leans Republican	Toss-up

Odds based on Sabato's ratings: 82.8%D up from 81.2%D

Oct 24 update

SENATE

Polls
FL Nelson +4
NJ Menendez +5

Projected Senate seats: 53.6R - 46.4D
Poll-based odds for Democratic Senate: remain 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest changes: 
MS Hyde-Smith 92%R up from 88%R 
NJ Menendez   78%D down from 82%D

Projected Senate seats: 53.7R - 46.3D
Market-based odds for Democratic Senate: 0.6%D down from 0.8%D

Analyst ratings
No changes

HOUSE

RCP
MN-01 Lean R »»» Toss Up
Odds based on RCP ratings: 77.5%D up from 74.2%D

Oct 23 update

From late 10/22 and 10/23 we have the following:

SENATE

Polls
10/22 - IN  Donnelly +1
10/22 - ND  Cramer +16
10/22 - WV  Manchin +16

10/23 - IN  Braun +4
10/23 - MS  Wicker +28
10/23 - MS2 Hyde-Smith +9

Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest changes: 
IN 46%D down from 56%D 
ND 15%D down from 21%D
Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.8%D down from 1.3%D
Analyst ratings
RCP
ND Heitkamp  Lean R »»» Likely R
WV Manchin   Lean D »»» Likely D
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 0.0%D


HOUSE
Cook
AK-01  Likely R »»» Lean R 
AZ-08  Safe R   »»» Likely R FL-06  Likely R »»» Lean R
FL-15  Lean R   »»» Toss Up 
FL-27  Toss Up  »»» Lean D 
IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
NY-23  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
TX-22  Likely R »»» Lean R 
TX-31  Lean R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on Cook ratings remain: 80.8%D up from 76.4%D

RCP
IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 74.2%D up from 77.5%D

Oct 22 update

From 10/21 and 10/22 we have the following movement:

SENATE

Polls
10/21 FL Nelson +5, MO Hawley +1

10/22 FL Scott +0.3, MN Klobuchar +23, MNsp Smith +6, CA Feinstein +18, VT Sanders +41
Odds Democratic control: 0.0%

PredictIt Markets
General buying in Democrat contracts:  

Biggest changes: FL 55%D up from 47%D, NV 51%D up from 43%D

Odds Democratic control: 1.3% up from 0.6%

Analyst-based

No changes

HOUSE

RCP:
10/21 IL-14    Toss Up  »»» Lean R
10/21 FL-06   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
10/21 TX-22   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 77.5%D down from 80.4%D

Oct 20 update

Polls
AZ  McSally +2
Poll-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.0%

PredictIt Markets 
largest daily change - decrease in odds for MI- Stabenow (D) to 81% from 85%
largest weekly changes:
increase in odds for IN- Donnelly (D) : 59% from 51%
increase in odds for TN- Bredesen (D) : 23% from 18%
Market-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.6%

Analyst ratings
No changes in Senate or House

Oct 19 update

SENATE

Poll Based: 
ME poll: Angus +27.6%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

Market-based:
minor changes
Odds remain: 0.6%D

Analyst-based:
Cook:
ND-Heitkamp   Toss Up »»» Lean R
Odds based on Cook's ratings: 2.9%D down from 7.6%D

HOUSE

RCP:
MI-11    Lean D   »»» Toss Up
OH-10   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
CO-03   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 80.4%D down from 83.9%D