The GOP's hopes continued to fade today, as news outlets began calling the Arizona Senate race for the Democrats, giving them 49 seats with Nevada trending in their direction as well.
In the House, the battle for 218 is still technically ongoing - but with all signs still pointing to a Republican House. Splitting the difference between LPR's Wednesday and Thursday estimates, the current estimate is for a 7 seat majority.
Republican's continued to build towards a working House majority today, as they have solidified 211 seats to the Democrats 200. LatestPollResults.com estimates that of the remaining 24 undecided seats, the Republicans will pick up an additional 11 seats.
The three remaining active Senate contracts have not pointed to as favorable an outcome for the GOP, with Dave Wasserman tweeting he's seen enough in AZ. If the Democrats do win the Arizona Senate seat, they will only need to win one of the remaining two seats, and the Republicans will need to win in Nevada and win the Georgia runoff to avoid a 50-50 Senate where the tiebreaking vote is against them.
LPR has projected a Republican Senate and House. While we wait for the 3 remaining Senate contests (two of which must be won by Republicans for LPR's perfect projection record to remain intact), we are closely watching the House races. Here is the latest information available, indicating the most likely outcome now is 220 to 215.
With an unbiased analysis of the latest publicly available poll in each state, LPR officially projects a Republican Senate. The most likely scenario is that Republicans will win 53 seats.
The Republican momentum hasn't slowed, as just three days out from election day, polls are pointing to a very high probability of a GOP Senate. While many news outlets discuss "tightening polls" or a "toss up Senate", LPR reports that - using those same polls - the math now clearly indicates a GOP-controlled Senate. Stay tuned for more late-breaking polls and market-based real-time analysis.
As October wanes, we are gearing up for an exciting election! Throughout the summer, the Democrats had held onto an advantage in polling, but in the last week that advantage has evaporated in dramatic fashion.
Our polling model is now pointing to likely GOP victory.
I've disabled the live home page.
What a wild ride! The home page was only intended to last a few hours to capture the excitement of election day - and not Election Week!
www.LiveElectionOdds.com and www.LatestPollResults.com are now redirecting to The Wizard of Odds using the same live data from PredictIt.
The very latest polls from the Trafalgar Group, improve Trump's Odds to 24.7%. In our initial projection, these two polls were not included. Trump gains 3 percentage points in our model based on this new data.
LatestPollResults.com officially projects that the Democrats will take the Senate!
NOTE: This was originally reported as a 90.8% chance for Democratic Control of the Senate. However, this probability has been corrected to 90.1% and 9.9% for Republican Control after accounting for a 3% increase in Trump's chances due to late-breaking Trafalgar polls.
Just hours before the polls close, we've seen a remarkable alignment of the poll-based and market-based analyses with both projecting around a 22% chance for Trump and a 77% chance for Biden. Note that currently, on PredictIt, the main election contract for Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? is showing 66 cent / 43 cent buy prices for Joe Biden and Donald Trump respectively:
It's important to understand that LPR's market-based projection is indifferent to this contract. Rather, LatestPollResults uses each state's (and district's) contract. The discrepancy between a 22% market-based probability on LatestPollResults and the overall contract at PredictIt indicates that traders are underestimating Biden's chances of winning the electoral college OR overestimating his chances to win certain states.
The final poll-based Electoral College analysis is complete. Biden is most likely to win with a 77.2% chance of victory. It's 2020 so we should note the worst case scenario - a 1.1% chance of a tie:
Recently, LatestPollResults's poll-based methodology was showing a 0.1% chance of a Trump victory. As many of the polling organizations release their final polls, Trump's chances of victory - perhaps predictably - are rising sharply.
For full disclosure, here is the latest poll per our criteria in each state that we are plugging into our model. Although Biden is still heavily favored, as of this moment, if Trump wins each poll he is leading in, he will be reelected.
We've launched a new settings menu for The Wizard of Odds.
You can now:
Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!
Today, we're adding a live probability distribution to The Wizard of Odds! You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on PredictIt, or by manually adjusting the sliders. This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!
We look forward to an exciting and unpredictable election season.
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