Tuesday, November 8, 2016

GOP Sweep: Trump to be 45th President

Latest Poll Results projects Donald Trump to be the 45th President of the United States!

While there are many states not officially called, it has become statistically impossible for Clinton to attain the Presidency!

Official LPR Projection: GOP to control Senate

Latest poll results predicts the Republican party to maintain control of the Senate.

The most likely scenario is that the Republicans will have 52 seats, losing two seats from their current 54 seat majority.

The Stock Market Indicator

Dow Futures down 500!

Popular Vote Projection

polls: 48.1% Clinton 44.9% Trump 7.0% 3rd party polls with Trafalgar Group polls: 47.8% Clinton 45.5% Trump 6.7% 3rd party Based upon the stream of results... Trafalgar Group looking pretty good!

Senate Poll & Market-based discrepancy

Looking at the Senate, we are certainly surprised to see a large divergence between the market-based odds which have consistently pointed to a Democratic Senate, and the LPR poll based analysis which shows that a Republican Senate is more likely. There is some drama since the Trafalgar Group polls have impacted the Senate probability by dramatically affecting the Senate 50/50 tie. However, even excluding the Trafalgar Group polls, the LPR poll-based analysis projects the most likely scenario is a Republican Senate!

Final Projections for Senate & Presidency

Here are the final poll-based projections. The numbers with the asterisk include the Trafalgar Group's four polls. The market-based numbers are as of midnight.

Poll Closings - Round 1

The first round of poll closings begin at 7pm (4pm here in California's 49th district where Darrell Issa is attempting to fend off a strong challenge from Doug Applegate):
  • Georgia
  • Indiana
  • Kentucky
  • South Carolina
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
While parts of Indiana and Kentucky cannot vote beginning in about 10 minutes, there are still other polling locations in those states that remain open until 7pm eastern.

Official LPR Projection: Republicans will win the House

LatestPollResults.com is officially calling the House of Representatives for the Republicans in the 2016 elections!  In fact, the GOP is essentially certain to capture the House of Representatives according to our model, which incorporates PredictIt live data and PredictWise data when PredictIt data is not available.

Only LatestPollResults.com is able to directly calculate the overall odds of victory in the House, as we are incorporating 129 individual probabilities into our model - seemingly a computational impossibility.

As you can see, the most likely possibility is that the Democrats will have 204 votes... leaving the entire distribution chart solid red, and the GOP majority at 231, down 16 seats from 2014.  This leaves their likely majority very similar to their 2012, the last Presidential election year.