The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!
Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:
There is a 99.6% probability the
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Nov 3rd update
Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:
Polls
FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.
Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
No changes
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
The election is in 3 days!
There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:
SENATE
FL Scott +1.6
MO McCaskill / Hawley TIED
NV Heller +3.3
Republicans currently leading or not up in 52 seats and tied in AZ and MO.
Projected seats: 52.8
Projected seats: 52.8
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
MO McCaskill jumps from 40% probability to 46%.
NV Rosen jumps from 57% probability to 61%.
TN Bredesen jumps from 16% chance of winning to 21%.
Republicans currently favored in races to give them 52 seats and IN tied
Projected seats: 53.2
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 1.3%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
No changes
HOUSE
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 226D - 209R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
RCP
SC-01 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
82.3%D RCP
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Nov 2nd update
Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.
Election in 4 days!
Polls
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9
WV Manchin +5
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D
RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D
Election in 4 days!
SENATE
CT Murphy +23
FL Nelson +2
MA Warren +22
NJ Menendez +12
NM Heinrich +15
OH Brown +9
PA Casey +15
TN Blackburn +9
TX Cruz +3
VT Sanders +36
WI Baldwin +9
WV Manchin +5
Republicans currently ahead or not up in 52 seats.
Projected seats: 51.6
Projected seats: 51.6
Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: 2.8%D
Market-based (PredictIt)
Most significant changes:
AZ McSally jumps from 48% probability to 56%.
IN Donnelly jumps from 45% probability to 51%.
WV Manchin falls from 80% chance of winning to 74%.
Republicans currently favored races to give them 52 seats.
Projected seats: 53.5
Market-based Odds for Senate Control 0.8%D
Analyst-based Senate ratings changes
Inside Elections
AZ Toss Up -> Tilt D
FL Toss Up -> Tilt D
NV Toss Up -> Tilt D
RCP
OH Likely D -> Lean D
WV Likely D -> Lean D
HOUSE
Market-based (PredictIt)
Seats currently favored: 222D - 213R
Analyst-based House ratings changes
Inside Elections
NM-02 Tilt R -> Toss Up
MI-08 Toss Up -> Tilt D
Sabato
CA-21 Likely R -> Lean R
CA-49 Lean D -> Likely D
IA-04 Likely R -> Lean R
NV-04 Lean D -> Likely D
RCP
AK-01 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
AR-02 | Lean R | »»» | Likely R |
FL-18 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
GA-06 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
GA-07 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
IA-04 | Likely R | »»» | Lean R |
IN-02 | Safe R | »»» | Likely R |
KY-06 | Toss Up | »»» | Lean R |
NH-01 | Lean D | »»» | Toss Up |
NJ-07 | Toss Up | »»» | Lean D |
NY-02 | Safe R | »»» | Likely R |
OR-05 | Likely D | »»» | Lean D |
PA-10 | Lean R | »»» | Toss Up |
Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP
77.8%D Cook
71.4%D Inside Elections
86.8%D Sabato
81.6%D RCP
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