Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Senate Poll & Market-based discrepancy

Looking at the Senate, we are certainly surprised to see a large divergence between the market-based odds which have consistently pointed to a Democratic Senate, and the LPR poll based analysis which shows that a Republican Senate is more likely. There is some drama since the Trafalgar Group polls have impacted the Senate probability by dramatically affecting the Senate 50/50 tie. However, even excluding the Trafalgar Group polls, the LPR poll-based analysis projects the most likely scenario is a Republican Senate!

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