Tuesday, November 8, 2016

GOP Sweep: Trump to be 45th President

Latest Poll Results projects Donald Trump to be the 45th President of the United States!

While there are many states not officially called, it has become statistically impossible for Clinton to attain the Presidency!

Official LPR Projection: GOP to control Senate

Latest poll results predicts the Republican party to maintain control of the Senate.

The most likely scenario is that the Republicans will have 52 seats, losing two seats from their current 54 seat majority.

The Stock Market Indicator

Dow Futures down 500!

Popular Vote Projection

polls: 48.1% Clinton 44.9% Trump 7.0% 3rd party polls with Trafalgar Group polls: 47.8% Clinton 45.5% Trump 6.7% 3rd party Based upon the stream of results... Trafalgar Group looking pretty good!

Senate Poll & Market-based discrepancy

Looking at the Senate, we are certainly surprised to see a large divergence between the market-based odds which have consistently pointed to a Democratic Senate, and the LPR poll based analysis which shows that a Republican Senate is more likely. There is some drama since the Trafalgar Group polls have impacted the Senate probability by dramatically affecting the Senate 50/50 tie. However, even excluding the Trafalgar Group polls, the LPR poll-based analysis projects the most likely scenario is a Republican Senate!

Final Projections for Senate & Presidency

Here are the final poll-based projections. The numbers with the asterisk include the Trafalgar Group's four polls. The market-based numbers are as of midnight.

Poll Closings - Round 1

The first round of poll closings begin at 7pm (4pm here in California's 49th district where Darrell Issa is attempting to fend off a strong challenge from Doug Applegate):
  • Georgia
  • Indiana
  • Kentucky
  • South Carolina
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
While parts of Indiana and Kentucky cannot vote beginning in about 10 minutes, there are still other polling locations in those states that remain open until 7pm eastern.

Official LPR Projection: Republicans will win the House

LatestPollResults.com is officially calling the House of Representatives for the Republicans in the 2016 elections!  In fact, the GOP is essentially certain to capture the House of Representatives according to our model, which incorporates PredictIt live data and PredictWise data when PredictIt data is not available.

Only LatestPollResults.com is able to directly calculate the overall odds of victory in the House, as we are incorporating 129 individual probabilities into our model - seemingly a computational impossibility.

As you can see, the most likely possibility is that the Democrats will have 204 votes... leaving the entire distribution chart solid red, and the GOP majority at 231, down 16 seats from 2014.  This leaves their likely majority very similar to their 2012, the last Presidential election year.

Monday, November 7, 2016

House Update

We've now updated our House probabilities with 7 new live probabilities!  This brings to 25 the number of House districts with live data.  There are 104 more house districts for which we are using static probabilities (from PredictWise), while the remaining districts are considered foregone conclusions.

We continuously update the overall probability of the House based upon these 129 probabilities as the live data changes.  While our final official "predictions" are still to come, the House seems certain to remain in Republican hands.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Comey (Part 17)

With word that Comey is again not recommending charges be brought against Clinton, we are seeing the immediate reaction in the prediction markets.

Note that the Market-Based LPR probability reacts instantaneously.  As the state-by-state market contracts are analyzed in real-time, and we continuously recalculate the overall probability!

Clinton's overall probability is moving up steadily as the news spreads, and at the time of this writing is at 86.6%.

Candidates head to... Michigan?

Michigan, one of the blue wall states which has had a high probability all year of voting for Clinton, is suddenly drawing the attention of both campaigns.

With Trump's team working hard to construct the narrative that he is on offense and expanding the map, Clinton is moving to shore up the state.  While LPR's market-based odds place Trump's odds of winning Michigan at 25.1% - a dramatic improvement, LPR's poll-based odds indicate that if the election had been held on Nov 3rd/4th that Clinton would have had a 95% chance of victory.  It's not clear if there has really been enough movement since then to account for such significant movement in the state.  Probably not.

In true Trump fashion, after pushing the narrative of the expanding map, the billionaire taunted Clinton for planning to go to Michigan, calling it a waste of time.  The strategy may be to fill up Clinton's compressed schedule, while Trump crisscrosses the country.  Even though all of the states he visits may not be in play, if he can increase his probabilities in any of them, and keep Clinton out of the states he needs to win, it'll be well worth it.

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Gearing Up for Tuesday

It's been an amazing election "season" (year?) so far here at LPR.  We're launching this blog tonight to keep everyone posted on our latest developments.

Since 2000, LatestPollResults has been dedicated to providing unbiased analyses of election data.  This year, we've been very excited to build upon our successful "Red State Blue State Game" and launched The Wizard of Odds, which recalculates the chance of the a Clinton and Trump in real time with every adjustment you make.

I'm already excited for all of the features we'll be able to pack into the Wizard by 2020!

Stay tuned!  We'll have a lot of polls coming in over the weekend!