tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40304915835927178752024-03-19T05:51:11.922-07:00Latest Poll ResultsLikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-13336743075732087162022-11-11T22:49:00.000-08:002022-11-11T22:49:13.808-08:00Friday Night Update<p>The GOP's hopes continued to fade today, as news outlets began calling the Arizona Senate race for the Democrats, giving them 49 seats with Nevada trending in their direction as well.</p><p>In the House, the battle for 218 is still technically ongoing - but with all signs still pointing to a Republican House. Splitting the difference between LPR's Wednesday and Thursday estimates, the current estimate is for a 7 seat majority.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTiz65PESMJemNNVHUasKCLcN6K2H6eO05C_ZWCBuDIV6S9oaWVszu19BFNPHEhmX7g_qaHhT2UN4e3sRLsWqh8y9wWp_YEI-fwGRGOzeEN4zTizHp52QP7Fz3xb4DObAZIcmfTc9za4Z5Ed9N2vfTTPlUlBxq0PG726CcgeEMB0JvfC4FOL7mxzo/s1713/2022_house_nov_11_1042pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1279" data-original-width="1713" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaTiz65PESMJemNNVHUasKCLcN6K2H6eO05C_ZWCBuDIV6S9oaWVszu19BFNPHEhmX7g_qaHhT2UN4e3sRLsWqh8y9wWp_YEI-fwGRGOzeEN4zTizHp52QP7Fz3xb4DObAZIcmfTc9za4Z5Ed9N2vfTTPlUlBxq0PG726CcgeEMB0JvfC4FOL7mxzo/w400-h299/2022_house_nov_11_1042pm.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-40227816417037960252022-11-10T23:06:00.001-08:002022-11-10T23:06:15.953-08:00Thursday Night Update<p>Republican's continued to build towards a working House majority today, as they have solidified 211 seats to the Democrats 200. LatestPollResults.com estimates that of the remaining 24 undecided seats, the Republicans will pick up an additional 11 seats.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5GfEq6R6p3JN2ff9ANrFn7xay3gBQ8h4HZnMiOoDta2YML6H0mRwcNd1cHIXarFPTVydAIBz6R9XBZdfwQ1USTAJlc52-ctuUUKfL678oUM8cwmaNmBzduXKb_8n5A5lK1vRAiKe8opGYAyA0GCOz60QHhUscbL-fSfJm9Vin9YeLVLa2Pk7wx-RL/s1713/2022_house_nov_9_1058pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1327" data-original-width="1713" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5GfEq6R6p3JN2ff9ANrFn7xay3gBQ8h4HZnMiOoDta2YML6H0mRwcNd1cHIXarFPTVydAIBz6R9XBZdfwQ1USTAJlc52-ctuUUKfL678oUM8cwmaNmBzduXKb_8n5A5lK1vRAiKe8opGYAyA0GCOz60QHhUscbL-fSfJm9Vin9YeLVLa2Pk7wx-RL/w400-h310/2022_house_nov_9_1058pm.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>The three remaining active Senate contracts have not pointed to as favorable an outcome for the GOP, with Dave Wasserman tweeting <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1590944022939717633%7Ctwgr%5E7649745d5972d1f8415bb9000d5e656121d62277%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dpredictitt_i%3D7112t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fwww.predictit.org2Fmarkets2Fdetail2F71122FWhich-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizonat_e%3DPredictIt207C20Which20party20will20win20the20202220U.S.20Senate20election20in20Arizona3Ft_d%3Dt_t%3DPredictIt207C20Which20party20will20win20the20202220U.S.20Senate20election20in20Arizona3Fs_o%3Ddefaultversion%3D3a1e4f7e3a4c44367810a3b3ba028a16">he's seen enough</a> in AZ. If the Democrats do win the Arizona Senate seat, they will only need to win <i>one</i> of the remaining two seats, and the Republicans will need to win in Nevada <i>and</i> win the Georgia runoff to avoid a 50-50 Senate where the tiebreaking vote is against them.</p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-21433721945442172332022-11-09T22:17:00.003-08:002022-11-09T22:17:44.120-08:00Wednesday Night Update<p>LPR has projected a Republican Senate and House. While we wait for the 3 remaining Senate contests (two of which must be won by Republicans for LPR's perfect projection record to remain intact), we are closely watching the House races. Here is the latest information available, indicating the most likely outcome now is 220 to 215.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFzMZhrv8aYXnkFRNrMs385nRqY8Trg77uY4mcasaGveRwp7PdQ8ejE0FJSClPtuCYuTf56N-qVX1BlS-W1W8a5tXQTm887MPjHJuDPRrCVLb9_0FzKynfxCOqgToHHLfR6ThCbZDbcbisPI0CvTySKzyJ5EhrwUechK_IaJZA44_MVFD-eKhVMHQa/s1846/2022_house_nov_9_1014pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1416" data-original-width="1846" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFzMZhrv8aYXnkFRNrMs385nRqY8Trg77uY4mcasaGveRwp7PdQ8ejE0FJSClPtuCYuTf56N-qVX1BlS-W1W8a5tXQTm887MPjHJuDPRrCVLb9_0FzKynfxCOqgToHHLfR6ThCbZDbcbisPI0CvTySKzyJ5EhrwUechK_IaJZA44_MVFD-eKhVMHQa/w400-h306/2022_house_nov_9_1014pm.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-8207540621581796062022-11-08T12:36:00.001-08:002022-11-08T12:36:05.643-08:00"Final" Probabilities<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfubokgoJIOZYvxlspu202UgKbct4LP6SKxRCiMUSwclRSzOeUvl5DEBOjc3v8ZNxPd1eMdcUVL4jnBQL_EuKNYz6cKF1Z34lMjGoNo-aeZkhCBc_5GmcZaV3XA5_w1GM9ZLJ63FhtceiPdlsFbtGJ9BeABDelikLMZjM8k-zCDuTVCeBCLv2l_dVU/s1202/chance_of_winning_control.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="303" data-original-width="1202" height="101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfubokgoJIOZYvxlspu202UgKbct4LP6SKxRCiMUSwclRSzOeUvl5DEBOjc3v8ZNxPd1eMdcUVL4jnBQL_EuKNYz6cKF1Z34lMjGoNo-aeZkhCBc_5GmcZaV3XA5_w1GM9ZLJ63FhtceiPdlsFbtGJ9BeABDelikLMZjM8k-zCDuTVCeBCLv2l_dVU/w400-h101/chance_of_winning_control.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-29005829413956216492022-11-08T11:56:00.001-08:002022-11-08T11:56:25.023-08:00LPR Officially Projects Republican House & Senate<p>With an unbiased analysis of the latest publicly available poll in each state, LPR officially projects a Republican Senate. The <i>most likely</i> scenario is that Republicans will win 53 seats.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjf2ssoPlh7CKDkS8j6jME0JUtcuV12-f41AKvmkj6aoCzEowJsRHRoS6xIH6SrcqTGzsqwA8ua_MVDVpHwOHyJiWnEVAaBTvNTy6sbq76iUVJZ5u6WtBbPI9tQ5hThIW8aLyFMu0ufmMnhFxvaREFo7GMhDRq5wldKf04xOq1ZKPy6Pa_5HDox9W8b" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1219" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjf2ssoPlh7CKDkS8j6jME0JUtcuV12-f41AKvmkj6aoCzEowJsRHRoS6xIH6SrcqTGzsqwA8ua_MVDVpHwOHyJiWnEVAaBTvNTy6sbq76iUVJZ5u6WtBbPI9tQ5hThIW8aLyFMu0ufmMnhFxvaREFo7GMhDRq5wldKf04xOq1ZKPy6Pa_5HDox9W8b=w400-h221" width="400" /></a></div><br />As poll coverage across House districts is not complete, LPR is making our House projection using our unique <i>analyst</i>-<i>based</i> analysis. Learn more about the math behind this methodology <a href="https://www.latestpollresults.com/analyst-based.html">here</a>.<p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-13516497934333959272022-11-05T13:31:00.006-07:002022-11-05T13:31:37.945-07:00Polling Confirms GOP's High Chances<p>The Republican momentum hasn't slowed, as just three days out from election day, polls are pointing to a very high probability of a GOP Senate. While many news outlets discuss "tightening polls" or a "toss up Senate", LPR reports that - using those same polls - the math now clearly indicates a GOP-controlled Senate. Stay tuned for more late-breaking polls and market-based real-time analysis.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOT9FSkBToqC1eAoB2FIjuGtd9zZfoxsYfE8GuzE6H4GDl8nEF__dADSOdpuX1tr9PfvpAJi7CtGXy62wZwrWvBo4UnN2zyIF7B1yuOBUCNFkYKbf1VCC7YxnUHmJWhzL46tpk-Js7Wd3MUHDm-iVXZaitd6p78BSSm8kvupsu4Yq3Ce-w9Rj20Ezl" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="969" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOT9FSkBToqC1eAoB2FIjuGtd9zZfoxsYfE8GuzE6H4GDl8nEF__dADSOdpuX1tr9PfvpAJi7CtGXy62wZwrWvBo4UnN2zyIF7B1yuOBUCNFkYKbf1VCC7YxnUHmJWhzL46tpk-Js7Wd3MUHDm-iVXZaitd6p78BSSm8kvupsu4Yq3Ce-w9Rj20Ezl=w400-h226" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-34398495675590561892022-10-30T23:19:00.004-07:002022-10-30T23:20:18.444-07:00Fall Polling Data Cools Democratic Chances<p> As October wanes, we are gearing up for an exciting election! Throughout the summer, the Democrats had held onto an advantage in polling, but in the last week that advantage has evaporated in dramatic fashion.</p><p>Our polling model is now pointing to likely GOP victory.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2P1quaas5Q-oxBLqzXcrCn1aALToBp7lct5QIrGiEtofVctwdiYuNfzFZztfgsVXDoIeYlzl1PGHKnt31vpLvOQUzmjwcRyLZrd0nke_4mvo7pKLPUYaP9tDuZH75nSoag18SiY4n6cVEreMkczgsIqOk7jQkKK5cNUDOWZDpB4XUlXNIgsmqBQs-" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="829" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2P1quaas5Q-oxBLqzXcrCn1aALToBp7lct5QIrGiEtofVctwdiYuNfzFZztfgsVXDoIeYlzl1PGHKnt31vpLvOQUzmjwcRyLZrd0nke_4mvo7pKLPUYaP9tDuZH75nSoag18SiY4n6cVEreMkczgsIqOk7jQkKK5cNUDOWZDpB4XUlXNIgsmqBQs-=w400-h333" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-11648892269294091152020-11-05T09:00:00.001-08:002020-11-05T09:00:51.090-08:00Red State Blue State Game (The Wizard of Odds) on Home Page<p>I've disabled the live home page.</p><p>What a wild ride! The home page was only intended to last a few hours to capture the excitement of election day - and not <i>Election Week!</i></p><p>www.LiveElectionOdds.com and www.LatestPollResults.com are now redirecting to The Wizard of Odds using the same live data from PredictIt. </p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-24023828846739031682020-11-03T15:59:00.004-08:002020-11-03T15:59:39.480-08:00Final Projections<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TY14PrCRxnBIvgBFsYpS5UsApPdtbwXrmH0QjkWimazVHVJx5DLojmB9UQ9Tvjr9InO5qvOGCBkHD6G4TuvBX-fkVwRZvVqDCQWTB4ZcsEIlkE08e8HEWhKclEIn4gDYNAmFkO_8Rvs/s723/final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="723" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1TY14PrCRxnBIvgBFsYpS5UsApPdtbwXrmH0QjkWimazVHVJx5DLojmB9UQ9Tvjr9InO5qvOGCBkHD6G4TuvBX-fkVwRZvVqDCQWTB4ZcsEIlkE08e8HEWhKclEIn4gDYNAmFkO_8Rvs/w400-h323/final.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-90236568266425580662020-11-03T15:44:00.001-08:002020-11-03T15:44:17.981-08:00Trafalgar Polls in Nevada, Georgia, push Trump from 21.7% to 24.7% in Official Analysis<p> The very latest polls from the Trafalgar Group, improve Trump's Odds to 24.7%. In our initial projection, these two polls were not included. Trump gains 3 percentage points in our model based on this new data.</p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-61350503493455471652020-11-03T15:26:00.002-08:002020-11-03T15:51:28.104-08:00Final Senate Projection - Democrats Very Likely To Take Senate<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJFoFCoSTKB1o9Biqauc2hLuSWoHWsuiLA3c8Y3qdEzkHU13HlcMAjFQL9_1aGGxmuv3qLf1JyAioSbuDaIdjRBmQmurVQCADM0dFwZ42d8aQoA-t0dzZbNXJLszNj5eq0RpmbKwiwRkY/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="551" height="98" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJFoFCoSTKB1o9Biqauc2hLuSWoHWsuiLA3c8Y3qdEzkHU13HlcMAjFQL9_1aGGxmuv3qLf1JyAioSbuDaIdjRBmQmurVQCADM0dFwZ42d8aQoA-t0dzZbNXJLszNj5eq0RpmbKwiwRkY/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p> <i>LatestPollResults.com </i>officially projects that the Democrats will take the Senate!</p><p><br /></p><p>NOTE: This was originally reported as a 90.8% chance for Democratic Control of the Senate. However, this probability has been corrected to 90.1% and 9.9% for Republican Control after accounting for a 3% increase in Trump's chances due to late-breaking Trafalgar polls.</p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-24989048263713659092020-11-03T11:38:00.002-08:002020-11-03T11:38:38.638-08:00Alignment of Poll-Based and Market-Based Probabilities<p>Just hours before the polls close, we've seen a remarkable alignment of the poll-based and market-based analyses with both projecting around a 22% chance for Trump and a 77% chance for Biden. Note that currently, on <a href="www.predictit.org">PredictIt</a>, the main election contract for <i><a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election">Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?</a></i> is showing 66 cent / 43 cent buy prices for Joe Biden and Donald Trump respectively:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGqPW8VAEj2viP92bp73ag_apsEIFsVxg95G6mPaLLfLyDPDuIKnlzGFwMeamE4RdiL_p3lqDwp1X7M5cx2gK-j4I66uFEPwaaaSWZZ-QvRIKNWhnxtSzyPQOh4EkVBHqx80xzZp_aa2Q/s482/predict_overall_contract.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGqPW8VAEj2viP92bp73ag_apsEIFsVxg95G6mPaLLfLyDPDuIKnlzGFwMeamE4RdiL_p3lqDwp1X7M5cx2gK-j4I66uFEPwaaaSWZZ-QvRIKNWhnxtSzyPQOh4EkVBHqx80xzZp_aa2Q/s16000/predict_overall_contract.png" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><p></p><p>It's important to understand that LPR's market-based projection is indifferent to this contract. Rather, <i>LatestPollResults</i> uses each <i>state's</i> (and <i>district's</i>) contract. The discrepancy between a 22% market-based probability on <i>LatestPollResults </i>and the overall contract at PredictIt indicates that traders are underestimating Biden's chances of winning the electoral college <i>OR</i> overestimating his chances to win certain states.</p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-86346434096464511792020-11-03T11:17:00.002-08:002020-11-03T11:39:57.922-08:00Election Day Dashboard<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Please join us at LPR (or <a href="http://www.LiveElectionOdds.com">www.LiveElectionOdds.com</a>)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyxeAl_7CcfWirkvQd1GZAJ5d1bRsSWsQgn-esixrWNdCTj4rTcqhKWFaNAHpBrRh0yxeDnMdjVfPQ4JXWfx6jnL_cfKgpT03RLehbFJf8CCrG557DAY2l9Iw5s2xyX6evHHbswglOUAg/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="657" height="405" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyxeAl_7CcfWirkvQd1GZAJ5d1bRsSWsQgn-esixrWNdCTj4rTcqhKWFaNAHpBrRh0yxeDnMdjVfPQ4JXWfx6jnL_cfKgpT03RLehbFJf8CCrG557DAY2l9Iw5s2xyX6evHHbswglOUAg/w554-h405/image.png" width="554" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-80586291122210083652020-11-03T11:13:00.003-08:002020-11-03T11:13:59.353-08:00Final Projection<p> The final poll-based Electoral College analysis is complete. Biden is most likely to win with a 77.2% chance of victory. It's 2020 so we should note the worst case scenario - a 1.1% chance of a tie:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNQUDsD3LgDYJKgd90ooDR9e4x8iMJBucKPiwrPf9XpPniRqqvduVaErrgcql_DR5zJgieRKmCQPkEkssoNDxGGijxDYF7mNv4qaiiPjOXgMwxsSgA9YXX7ZpiP7VxO8I_-xeVZFlJh7U/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="136" data-original-width="431" height="101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNQUDsD3LgDYJKgd90ooDR9e4x8iMJBucKPiwrPf9XpPniRqqvduVaErrgcql_DR5zJgieRKmCQPkEkssoNDxGGijxDYF7mNv4qaiiPjOXgMwxsSgA9YXX7ZpiP7VxO8I_-xeVZFlJh7U/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-83455126455534871152020-11-02T10:33:00.006-08:002020-11-02T10:46:07.087-08:00Dramatic Trump Surge in Latest Polling<p>Recently, <i>LatestPollResults's </i>poll-based methodology was showing a 0.1% chance of a Trump victory. As many of the polling organizations release their final polls, Trump's chances of victory - perhaps predictably - are rising sharply.</p><p>For full disclosure, here is the latest poll per our criteria in each state that we are plugging into our model. Although Biden is still heavily favored, as of this moment, if Trump wins each poll he is leading in, he will be reelected.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://latestpollresults.com/Polls.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="445" height="1002" src="http://latestpollresults.com/Polls.gif" width="557" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-35167772705629815532020-11-01T18:07:00.001-08:002020-11-01T18:07:24.946-08:00New Wizard of Odds Features<p> We've launched a new settings menu for <i>The Wizard of Odds</i>.</p><p><br /></p><p>You can now:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Toggle the live data here instead of at the bottom of the screen for when you <i>don't</i> want to receive live market updates during periods of intense analysis. This can be important because if you are testing specific scenarios and using the sliders, live data can affect your comparisons.</li><li>Assume that any candidate over specific thresholds in a state will will that state. This is important for focusing on battleground states, as many users use <i>The Wizard of Odds</i> by moving the near-certainties to 100%.</li><li>Reset the map sliders without refreshing the page. This will reset all manual data to the original position.</li></ul><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitiq_NufwoPC3Z1m3VZurkJR_9jfD4AlmS3Xsn5kRWXqHsO8DEurJzEoxmRlX_S_DP3FGj6mDcx-9s79uhXCnICq6b8-z3pTatbXCd28Y8azQLiYknvKHDX5gun-2JxyhVjewf9Xk6y88/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="265" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitiq_NufwoPC3Z1m3VZurkJR_9jfD4AlmS3Xsn5kRWXqHsO8DEurJzEoxmRlX_S_DP3FGj6mDcx-9s79uhXCnICq6b8-z3pTatbXCd28Y8azQLiYknvKHDX5gun-2JxyhVjewf9Xk6y88/" width="175" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-45357559637879019082020-10-25T18:26:00.002-07:002020-10-25T18:26:19.711-07:00Senate Version of The Wizard of Odds<p> For the first time, we have launched a <i><a href="https://www.latestpollresults.com/2020/rsbs_senate.html">Senate Version</a></i> of The Wizard of Odds!</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi89BpbqVz_6v1AFjOfat2dT-3-qt8h8m6nRByw8JQNVOTNNJGU_PWODCK4ZIW4YjgrRfB2SSmCa8FOYNqIHj3nMxIeITbCMyOyFC5lukIb7nKVTgeQU2L8jfgwq1S1KqL8lZqG2F7T1u4/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="1551" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi89BpbqVz_6v1AFjOfat2dT-3-qt8h8m6nRByw8JQNVOTNNJGU_PWODCK4ZIW4YjgrRfB2SSmCa8FOYNqIHj3nMxIeITbCMyOyFC5lukIb7nKVTgeQU2L8jfgwq1S1KqL8lZqG2F7T1u4/w640-h254/image.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-61725925656186098362020-10-06T19:36:00.000-07:002020-10-06T19:36:54.668-07:002020 Kickoff Post<p>Welcome back to LatestPollResults for the 2020 election!</p><p>Today, we're adding a <i>live probability distribution</i> to <i><a href="https://www.latestpollresults.com/rsbs.html">The Wizard of Odds</a></i>! You'll be able to see the distribution chart change in real-time either with the changing state contracts on <a href="https://predictit.org">PredictIt</a>, or by manually adjusting the sliders. This is the first time we've been able to offer a distribution chart that is based on user input, and we're really excited to enable this functionality!</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjabYJA3-28DgIrKTJCtV5UPUyZzKw9kiwvTVQ5CCZQCrtXsc1BjS890CkCJs_9P9eGX1Y19D-8ETggerC6HNfE7P-X9n9IAUHMI-ipDBjedLvJ4pybH0YyGesvOrjSRhj_bEc6tPp60Ic/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="810" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjabYJA3-28DgIrKTJCtV5UPUyZzKw9kiwvTVQ5CCZQCrtXsc1BjS890CkCJs_9P9eGX1Y19D-8ETggerC6HNfE7P-X9n9IAUHMI-ipDBjedLvJ4pybH0YyGesvOrjSRhj_bEc6tPp60Ic/w512-h260/image.png" width="512" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p>We look forward to an exciting and <i>unpredictable </i>election season.</p>LikelyStoryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14431359644506769189noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-87979475717640672732018-11-06T00:00:00.000-08:002018-11-06T00:17:14.826-08:00Nov 6 - Projection<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;">The final polls are in, the analysts have posted their final ratings, and now it's time to count the votes!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;">Our poll-based analysis, which has been 100% accurate, gives us the following projection:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;">There is a 99.6% probability the </span><br />
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace; font-size: large;"><b>REPUBLICANS RETAIN THE SENATE</b></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomZFTPHFygsY0U-x097IU2r-ddieoXEa4lynEd5RDJqwVzUlCS6XRNEbP2ee-LEBwW9z5ixNtHObKJyJtdgtxDwN39mFHMCZ8Nky60IWHaHpU7y1J9WQonUVLqdyE85xU7vA4KVcR6Jc/s1600/pb1105SPD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="809" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomZFTPHFygsY0U-x097IU2r-ddieoXEa4lynEd5RDJqwVzUlCS6XRNEbP2ee-LEBwW9z5ixNtHObKJyJtdgtxDwN39mFHMCZ8Nky60IWHaHpU7y1J9WQonUVLqdyE85xU7vA4KVcR6Jc/s400/pb1105SPD.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-45050428967594227982018-11-04T01:29:00.002-07:002018-11-04T01:29:41.511-07:00Nov 3rd update<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Today was the calm before the storm. We are anticipating a barrage of polls tomorrow and Monday and final analysts ratings.</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">The election is in <b>3</b> days!</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">There were 3 new Senate polls and one analyst switch in the House:</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br />
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<b>SENATE</b></h3>
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<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Polls</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">FL </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">Scott +1.6</span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">MO McCaskill </span>/<span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">Hawley </span>TIED</b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">NV </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">Heller +3.3</span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Republicans currently leading or not up in <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>52</b></span> seats and tied in AZ and MO.</span><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Projected seats: <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>52.8</b></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: <span style="color: blue;"><b>2.8%D</b></span></span></div>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Market-based (PredictIt)</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Most significant changes:</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">MO</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: blue;">McCaskill</span><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span></span><span style="color: #333333;">jumps from</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: blue;">40%</span></span><span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="color: #333333;">probability to </span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">46%</span>.</span></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-weight: bold;">NV</span><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold;">Rosen </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">jumps from <span style="color: blue;"><b>57%</b></span> probability to <b><span style="color: blue;">61%</span></b>.</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b style="color: blue;">TN Bredesen </b><span style="color: blue;">jumps </span>from <span style="color: blue;"><b>16%</b></span> chance of winning to <span style="color: blue;"><b>21%</b></span>.</span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #333333;">Republicans currently favored in races to give them </span><b style="color: #333333;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">52</span></b><span style="color: #333333;"> seats and </span><b><span style="color: blue;">IN </span></b><span style="color: #333333;">tied</span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Projected seats: <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">53.2</span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Market-based Odds for Senate Control <span style="color: blue;"><b>1.3%D</b></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Analyst-based Senate ratings changes</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">No changes</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;"><br /></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br />
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>HOUSE</b></h3>
<br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Market-based (PredictIt)</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i><br /></i></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Seats currently favored: <b><span style="color: blue;">226D - </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">209R</span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Analyst-based House ratings changes</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br />
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<b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">RCP</b></div>
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<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt; width: 39pt;" width="52"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>SC-01</b></span></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 74pt;" width="98"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 25pt;" width="34"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 74pt;" width="98"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>77.8%D </b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Cook</b><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">71.4%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Inside Elections</b><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">86.8%D</span> Sabato</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">82.3%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">RCP</b></div>
</div>
Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-82571687642891965632018-11-03T01:51:00.000-07:002018-11-03T01:51:01.788-07:00Nov 2nd update<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Thursday and Friday brought us fresh polls in 12 states and analysts are making several several last minute changes.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Election in 4 days!</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br />
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>SENATE</b></h3>
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i>Polls</i></b><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>CT Murphy +23</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>FL Nelson +2</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>MA Warren +22</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NJ Menendez +12</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NM Heinrich +15</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>OH Brown +9</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>PA Casey +15</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>TN Blackburn +9</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>TX Cruz +3</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>VT Sanders +36</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>WI Baldwin +9</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>WV Manchin +5</b></span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Republicans currently ahead or not up in <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>52</b></span> seats.</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Projected seats: <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>51.6</b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: <span style="color: blue;"><b>2.8%<span style="font-size: 13px;">D</span></b></span></span></div>
<b style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><br /></b>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i>Market-based (PredictIt)</i></b><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Most significant changes:</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-weight: bold;">AZ</span><span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">McSally </span></span>jumps from<span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">48%</span></span><span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;"> </span>p<span style="color: #333333;">robability to </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">56%</span>.</span></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-weight: bold;">IN</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-weight: bold;">Donnelly </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">jumps from <span style="color: blue;"><b>45%</b></span> probability to <b><span style="color: blue;">51%</span></b>.</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b style="color: blue;">WV Manchin </b>falls <span style="color: #333333;">from </span><span style="color: blue;"><b>80%</b></span><span style="color: #333333;"> chance of winning to </span><span style="color: blue;"><b>74%</b></span><span style="color: #333333;">.</span></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><br /></b></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Republicans currently favored races to give them <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">52</span></b> seats.</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Projected seats: <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">53.5</span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Market-based Odds for Senate Control <span style="color: blue;"><b>0.8%D</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i>Analyst-based Senate ratings changes</i></b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></b>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Inside Elections</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">AZ</span> </b><span style="color: #333333;"><b>Toss Up</b></span><b style="color: #333333;"> -> </b><b><span style="color: blue;">Tilt D</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="color: blue;">FL</span></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"> </b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"><b>Toss Up </b></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;">-> </b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="color: blue;">Tilt D</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">NV</span></b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"> <b>Toss Up</b></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"> -></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="color: blue;"></span></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"> </b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa;"><span style="color: blue;">Tilt D</span></b></span><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;"><br /></b>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">RCP</b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">OH </span></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">Likely D -> Lean D</span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">WV </span></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">Likely D -> Lean D</span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;"><br /></b>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;"><br /></b>
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>HOUSE</b></h3>
<br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i>Market-based (PredictIt)</i></b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></b>
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Seats currently favored: <b><span style="color: blue;">222D - </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">213R</span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i>Analyst-based House ratings changes</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>Inside Elections</b></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;"></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NM-02 <span style="color: #cc0000;">Tilt R</span> -> Toss Up</b></span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">MI-08 Toss Up -> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">Tilt D</span></span></b><br />
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
<b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: medium;">Sabato</b></div>
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
<div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>CA-21 <span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span> -> </b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></b></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>CA-49 <span style="color: blue;">Lean D -> </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">Likely D</span></b></div>
<div>
<div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>IA-04 <span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span> -> </b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></b></div>
<div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NV-04 </b></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">Lean D -> </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">Likely D</span></b></div>
<div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">
<b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">RCP</b></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 282px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 1792; mso-width-source: userset; width: 39pt;" width="52"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3387; mso-width-source: userset; width: 74pt;" width="98"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1161; mso-width-source: userset; width: 25pt;" width="34"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3387; mso-width-source: userset; width: 74pt;" width="98"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt; width: 39pt;" width="52"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>AK-01</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 74pt;" width="98"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 25pt;" width="34"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 74pt;" width="98"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>AR-02</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><b style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Lean R</b></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>FL-18</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean R</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>GA-06</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><b style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Lean R</b></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>GA-07</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><b style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Lean R</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>IA-04</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><b style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Lean R</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>IN-02</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #e06666; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Safe R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>KY-06</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean R</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NH-01</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean D</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NJ-07</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean D</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>NY-02</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Safe R</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely R</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>OR-05</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Likely D</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Lean D</b></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.6pt;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>PA-10</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><b style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Lean R</b></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>»»»</b></span></td>
<td class="xl65"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Toss Up</b></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
</div>
<div style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333;">
<div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:</span><br /><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>77.8%D </b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Cook</b><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"> </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">71.4%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">Inside Elections</b><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">86.8%D</span> Sabato</b></span><br /><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">81.6%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;">RCP</b></div>
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Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-7338872798545158882018-10-31T13:38:00.000-07:002018-10-31T13:38:24.260-07:00Oct 31st update and summary<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">In the last few days we've had fresh polls in 16 different Senate races ...</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br />
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>SENATE</b></h3>
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<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Polls</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">AZ</span><span style="color: blue;"> Sinema +4</span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">CA Feinstein +9</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">CT Murphy +20</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">FL Nelson +1.4</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">MA Warren +22</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">ME King +13</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">MI Stabenow +17</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">MT Tester +3</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: blue;">ND </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">Cramer +9</span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">NJ Menendez +5</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span></b></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">NV </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Rosen +3</span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">NM Heinrich +16</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">OH Brown +6</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">TN</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="color: #cc0000;">Blackburn +5</span></span></b></span><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">TX Cruz +10</span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">WI Baldwin +11</span></b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: #cc0000;"><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;" /></span></b></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Most significant changes: </span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">AZ </span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Sinema, </b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">now favored</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">NV </span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Rosen, </b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">now </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">favored.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Republicans currently ahead or not up in <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>52</b></span> seats.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Projected seats: <span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>52.8</b></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: <span style="color: blue;"><b>0.0%D</b></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>PredictIt markets</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Most significant changes:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-weight: bold;">AZ</span><span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;"> Sinema </span>jumps from <span style="color: blue;"><b>37%</b></span> probability to now favored at <span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;">52%</span>.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold;">NV</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold;"> Rosen </span><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">jumps from <span style="color: blue;"><b>45%</b></span> probability to now favored at <b><span style="color: blue;">54%</span></b>.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b style="color: blue;">WV Manchin </b>jumps from <span style="color: blue;"><b>75%</b></span> chance of winning to <span style="color: blue;"><b>80%</b></span>.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Republicans currently favored races to give them <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">52</span></b> seats.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Projected seats: <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">53.5</span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Market-based Odds for Senate Control <span style="color: blue;"><b>0.8%D</b></span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Analyst Senate ratings changes:</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;">No changes</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Analyst-based Odds for Senate Control:</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b>1.6%D </b></span><b style="color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Cook</b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">0.0%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Inside Elections</b><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">2.5%D</span> Sabato</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">0.0%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">RCP</b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><br />
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>HOUSE</b></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b>House ratings changes:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Cook</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">A</strong><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">R-02: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;"><b>→</b></span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">CA-01: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Solid R </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;">to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue;"><b>←</b></span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">CA-22: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Solid R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue;"><b>←</b></span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">FL-18: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue;"><b>←</b></span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">IA-04: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue;"><b>←</b></span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">OH-01: </strong><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;"><b>→</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #ee384c;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Inside Elections</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">FL-26: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NC-09: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NJ-07: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">UT-04: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">KS-03: </strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;">Lean D</span> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>←</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NH-01: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;">Lean D</span> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>←</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NJ-11: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;">Lean D</span> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>←</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">FL-15: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tilt R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">IL-14: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tilt R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">OH-01: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tilt R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">CA-50: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">FL-06: </strong></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">GA-06: </strong></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">GA-07: </strong></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">MN-08: </strong><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;">→</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NC-02: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Tilt R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;">→</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NY-11: </strong><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NY-24: </strong></span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span></span><b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">←</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">WA-05: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Lean R</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Likely R</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;">→</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<b style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Real Clear Politics</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">PA-17: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Lean D</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue;">Likely D</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NC-13: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">→</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">CA-21: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Lean R</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> to </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #cc0000; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Likely R</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #cc0000;">→</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">SC-01: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Safe R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>←</b></span></div>
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<strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: small;">IA-04: </strong><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Safe R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Likely R</span><span style="color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>←</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">NV-04: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Lean D</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;" /><strong style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #666666;">MT-01: </strong></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Lean R</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> to </span><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toss Up</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">←</span></div>
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<b style="color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><br /></b></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Analyst-based Odds for House Control now all point to the Democrats:</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b>77.8%D </b></span><b style="color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Cook</b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">65.0%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Inside Elections</b><br />
<span style="font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b><span style="color: blue;">82.8%D</span> Sabato</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><b><span style="color: blue;">73.5%D </span></b></span><b style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">RCP</b></div>
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Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-60891797552556563072018-10-27T20:03:00.001-07:002018-10-27T20:03:58.819-07:00Oct 27th update & summary<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">Friday/Saturday updates ...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span>
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>SENATE</b></h3>
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<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Polls</i></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>MI Stabenow +6</b></span></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">MO </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Hawley +4</span></span></b><br />
<b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">TX</span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Cruz +6</span></span></b><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Poll-based Odds for Senate Control: <span style="color: blue;"><b>0.0%D</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;" /></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>PredictIt markets</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;">minor changes </span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Market-based Odds for Senate Control <span style="color: blue;"><b>0.6%D</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Analyst Senate ratings changes:</i></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-size: 13px;">10/23 Cook:</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>NJ-Menéndez</b> Lean D </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #cc0000; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Toss Up</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">10/26 Inside Elections:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>OH-Brown</b> Lean D </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #cc0000; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">Safe D</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>PA-Casey</b> Lean D </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #cc0000; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">Safe D</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>WI-Baldwi</b>n Lean D </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">»</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #cc0000; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">Safe D</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; font-family: "courier new", courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span>
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>HOUSE</b></h3>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>House ratings changes:</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">10/23 - Cook 10 changes: <span style="color: blue;">8 in D </span>direction</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">10/25 - Sabato 16 changes: <span style="color: blue;">12 </span>in D direction </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">10/26 - Inside Elections 18 changes: <span style="color: blue;">15 </span>in <span style="color: blue;">D </span>direction</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b>The probability that the Democrats win the House based on each analyst's current ratings and the historical accuracy of the analyst's ratings.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: blue;">80.8%D</span></b> </span><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;">Cook</span><span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: blue;">65.0%D</span></b> Inside Elections</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: blue;">82.8%D</span></b> Sabato </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="color: blue;">77.5%D</span></b> RCP</span></div>
Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-79179483616489285742018-10-25T15:12:00.000-07:002018-10-25T15:12:08.584-07:00Oct 25th update<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>SENATE</b></h3>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Polls</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">MI Stabenow +7</span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Odds remain: <span style="color: blue;">0.0%D</span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>PredictIt markets</i></b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">largest change: </span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">WV Manchin 75%D</span> down from <span style="color: blue;">81%D </span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Odds based on PredictIt markets: <span style="color: blue;">0.5%D</span> down from <span style="color: blue;">0.6%D</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"></span><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><i>Analyst ratings</i></b><br />
<b><i><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /></i></b><b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">RCP</b><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: blue;">MI </span></span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Stabenow </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"> </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Likely D</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span>»»» </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Lean D</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Odds based on RCP's ratings remain: <span style="color: blue;">0.0%D</span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------------</span><br />
<h3 style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; margin: 0px; position: relative;">
<b>HOUSE</b></h3>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<b style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Sabato - </b><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-size: 13px;"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">16 ratings changes outlined in last night's blog</span></span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">Odds based on Sabato's ratings: </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;">82.8%D up from 81.2%D</span><br style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" /><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: blue; font-family: "Courier New", Courier, monospace; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4030491583592717875.post-70541952949517503142018-10-24T20:51:00.002-07:002018-10-24T20:51:27.840-07:00Oct 24 update - evening<br /><div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">16 House ratings changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball:</span></h3>
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<h2 style="background-color: white; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px;">
House ratings changes</h2>
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<em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Oct. 25, 2018</em></div>
<table style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-spacing: 0px; color: black; display: block; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px auto 30px; padding: 0px;"><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><th style="background-color: #f0f0f0; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Member/District</th><th style="background-color: #f0f0f0; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Old Rating</th><th style="background-color: #f0f0f0; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">New Rating</th></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)</td><td style="background-color: #fc3d36; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Jim Costa (D, CA-16)</td><td style="background-color: #1a75ff; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Democratic</td><td style="background-color: #66a3ff; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Democratic</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Scott Tipton (R, CO-3)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16)</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Brian Mast (R, FL-18)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Karen Handel (R, GA-6)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Mike Bost (R, IL-12)</td><td style="background-color: #f2e6ff; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Toss-up</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Justin Amash (R, MI-3)</td><td style="background-color: #fc3d36; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Bill Huizenga (R, MI-2)</td><td style="background-color: #fc3d36; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Fred Upton (R, MI-6)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">John Katko (R, NY-24)</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Peter King (R, NY-2)</td><td style="background-color: #fc3d36; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21)</td><td style="background-color: #fc3d36; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Safe Republican</td><td style="background-color: #fd6d68; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Likely Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Scott Taylor (R, VA-2)</td><td style="background-color: #f2e6ff; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Toss-up</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td></tr>
<tr style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">VA-5 Open (Garrett, R)</td><td style="background-color: #ffb3b3; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Leans Republican</td><td style="background-color: #f2e6ff; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px; overflow: hidden; padding: 10px 5px; text-align: center; vertical-align: top; word-break: normal;">Toss-up</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;">Odds based on Sabato's ratings: </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "courier new" , "courier" , monospace;"><b>82.8%D</b> up from 81.2%D</span></div>
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Steve Delanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16899431011345385270noreply@blogger.com0