Oct 23 update

From late 10/22 and 10/23 we have the following:

SENATE

Polls
10/22 - IN  Donnelly +1
10/22 - ND  Cramer +16
10/22 - WV  Manchin +16

10/23 - IN  Braun +4
10/23 - MS  Wicker +28
10/23 - MS2 Hyde-Smith +9

Odds remain: 0.0%D

PredictIt markets
largest changes: 
IN 46%D down from 56%D 
ND 15%D down from 21%D
Odds based on PredictIt markets: 0.8%D down from 1.3%D
Analyst ratings
RCP
ND Heitkamp  Lean R »»» Likely R
WV Manchin   Lean D »»» Likely D
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 0.0%D


HOUSE
Cook
AK-01  Likely R »»» Lean R 
AZ-08  Safe R   »»» Likely R FL-06  Likely R »»» Lean R
FL-15  Lean R   »»» Toss Up 
FL-27  Toss Up  »»» Lean D 
IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
NY-23  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
TX-22  Likely R »»» Lean R 
TX-31  Lean R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on Cook ratings remain: 80.8%D up from 76.4%D

RCP
IL-12  Toss Up  »»» Lean R 
OK-05  Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP ratings remain: 74.2%D up from 77.5%D

Oct 22 update

From 10/21 and 10/22 we have the following movement:

SENATE

Polls
10/21 FL Nelson +5, MO Hawley +1

10/22 FL Scott +0.3, MN Klobuchar +23, MNsp Smith +6, CA Feinstein +18, VT Sanders +41
Odds Democratic control: 0.0%

PredictIt Markets
General buying in Democrat contracts:  

Biggest changes: FL 55%D up from 47%D, NV 51%D up from 43%D

Odds Democratic control: 1.3% up from 0.6%

Analyst-based

No changes

HOUSE

RCP:
10/21 IL-14    Toss Up  »»» Lean R
10/21 FL-06   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
10/21 TX-22   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 77.5%D down from 80.4%D

Oct 20 update

Polls
AZ  McSally +2
Poll-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.0%

PredictIt Markets 
largest daily change - decrease in odds for MI- Stabenow (D) to 81% from 85%
largest weekly changes:
increase in odds for IN- Donnelly (D) : 59% from 51%
increase in odds for TN- Bredesen (D) : 23% from 18%
Market-based Senate odds for D Control remain 0.6%

Analyst ratings
No changes in Senate or House

Oct 19 update

SENATE

Poll Based: 
ME poll: Angus +27.6%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

Market-based:
minor changes
Odds remain: 0.6%D

Analyst-based:
Cook:
ND-Heitkamp   Toss Up »»» Lean R
Odds based on Cook's ratings: 2.9%D down from 7.6%D

HOUSE

RCP:
MI-11    Lean D   »»» Toss Up
OH-10   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
CO-03   Safe R   »»» Likely R 
Odds based on RCP's ratings: 80.4%D down from 83.9%D

Oct 18 update

From 10/17 and 10/18 we had the following movement:

SENATE

Poll Based: 
Polls in FL, IN, NJ, NY and CA with FL : Scott +1.4%
Odds remain: 0.0%D

Market-based:
minor changes - odds remain: 0.6%D

Analyst-based:
no ratings changes: odds remain in single digits

HOUSE

Cook : odds 76.4%D up from 72.3%D
OH-12   Lean R    »»» Toss Up
NY-11    Likely R  »»» Lean R

RCP: odds 83.9%D up from 80.6%D
FL-15   Safe R    »»» Toss Up
AK-01   Safe R    »»» Toss Up

Sabato: odds 81.2%D  down from 81.6%D

Member/District	Old Rating	New Rating
AZ-2 Open (McSally, R)	Leans Democratic	Likely Democratic
Mimi Walters (R, CA-45)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
Peter Roskam (R, IL-6)	Toss-up	Leans Democratic
MN-8 Open (Nolan, D)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
NH-1 Open (Shea-Porter, D)	Leans Democratic	Likely Democratic
Steve Chabot (R, OH-1)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8)	Leans Democratic	Likely Democratic
Rothfus (R) vs. Lamb (D) (PA-17)	Leans Democratic	Likely Democratic
SC-1 Open (Sanford, R)	Likely Republican	Leans Republican
Will Hurd (R, TX-23)	Toss-up	Leans Republican
WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R)	Toss-up	Leans Republican

Oct 17 update

From 10/16

SENATE

Poll-based
New polls in TX Cruz +7, CA Feinstein +14, WA Cantwell +14
Chance Democratic control: 0.0%

Market-based
Generally minor changes. Biggest change: AZ 45%D up from 38%D

Chance Democratic control: 0.6%

Analyst-based

No changes

HOUSE

Cook: MN-08 Toss Up  »»» Lean R 

Chance Democratic control: 72.3% down from 76.1%

RCP:  KS-03 Toss Up  »»» Lean D

Chance Democratic control: 80.6% up from 76.7%

Oct 15 update

Senate

Poll-based
New polls in NV Heller+7, MD Cardin+27, UT Romney+36
Chance Democratic control: 0.0%

Market-based
Generally minor changes. Biggest change: NV 39%D down from 45%D

Analyst-based
No changes

House

RCP chance of Democratic control: 76.7%D up from 69.8%D
NC-13 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
NJ-11 Toss Up         »»» Leans Dem
NV-03 Leans Dem »»» Toss Up
IL-14 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up