Monday, October 15, 2018

Oct 15 update

Senate

Poll-based
New polls in NV Heller+7, MD Cardin+27, UT Romney+36
Chance Democratic control: 0.0%

Market-based
Generally minor changes. Biggest change: NV 39%D down from 45%D

Analyst-based
No changes

House

RCP chance of Democratic control: 76.7%D up from 69.8%D
NC-13 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
NJ-11 Toss Up         »»» Leans Dem
NV-03 Leans Dem »»» Toss Up
IL-14 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up

2 comments:

  1. Who's going to tell Cook that North Dakota is a 0% chance and it's still listed as a toss-up at https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings ?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well, the latest ND poll does indicate a 0.0%D probability and the market-based odds are 18%D. I'm not sure what other factors Cook may be looking at ... but, Inside Elections, Sabato and RCP have already moved the race to Tilt R, Lean R and Lean R.

    ReplyDelete