Just hours before the polls close, we've seen a remarkable alignment of the poll-based and market-based analyses with both projecting around a 22% chance for Trump and a 77% chance for Biden. Note that currently, on PredictIt, the main election contract for Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? is showing 66 cent / 43 cent buy prices for Joe Biden and Donald Trump respectively:
It's important to understand that LPR's market-based projection is indifferent to this contract. Rather, LatestPollResults uses each state's (and district's) contract. The discrepancy between a 22% market-based probability on LatestPollResults and the overall contract at PredictIt indicates that traders are underestimating Biden's chances of winning the electoral college OR overestimating his chances to win certain states.
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